Advisor(s)
Rouzbeh Nazari
Committee Member(s)
Ashraf Al-Hamdan
Jason Kirby
Robert Peters
Wesley Zech
School
School of Engineering
Document Type
Dissertation
Department (new version)
Civil Engineering
Date of Award
1-6-2025
Abstract
Climate change is set to profoundly impact urban infrastructure, causing increased flooding and storm damage, necessitating the reevaluation and adaptation of design methodologies to account for increasing precipitation extremes. This dissertation aims to enhance the resilience of urban infrastructure in Alabama by updating Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, which are crucial for designing stormwater management systems, drainage networks, and flood control structures. Traditional IDF curves, derived from historical rainfall data, operate under the assumption of stationarity, an assumption increasingly invalidated by climate change. This research employs the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and compares the efficacy of L-moments and Generalized Maximum Likelihood Estimation (GMLE) methods in constructing IDF curves using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled data from ten General Circulation Models (GCMs). The study involves estimating 24-hour precipitation depths for return periods ranging from 2 to 500 years, validating these estimates against current NOAA Atlas 14 data, and projecting future changes under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results indicate significant variability in model performance, with TaiESM1, MIROC6, and GFDL-ESM4 consistently showing accuracy across different locations. Future projections highlight an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, particularly under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, posing substantial challenges for infrastructure designed based on historical data. The L-moments method generally outperformed GMLE in predicting NOAA Atlas 14 estimates across most stations, suggesting its superiority in dealing with the data and conditions of this study. However, GMLE showed better performance in certain contexts where GCMs closely replicated NOAA Atlas 14 estimates. To address these projected changes, it is essential to update design standards, adopt adaptive management strategies, enhance monitoring and data collection systems, and integrate climate projections into policy frameworks. This study provides a comprehensive methodology for developing non-stationary precipitation frequency estimates for Alabama, offering valuable insights for infrastructure planning and climate adaptation strategies in Alabama, thereby safeguarding property and public safety against future climatic conditions.
ProQuest ID
Recommended Citation
Opare, Kofi Ntow, "Mitigating The Impacts Of Future Climate Change On Urban Infrastructure In Alabama Through Updating Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (Idf) Curves" (2025). All ETDs from UAB. 7237.
https://digitalcommons.library.uab.edu/etd-collection/7237
